Global LNG Market Short And Long Term Outlook – Trends, Drivers And Forecasts Of Supply, Demand, Capacity, Trade And Contracts To 2020

LNGReports new report on Global LNG Market Short and Long Term Outlook expects the current supply glut to end in 2014. Further, the report expects global demand- supply balance to stand at 75 million tonnes in 2020. The report also states that the recent Japanese nuclear outage and nuclear phase out by European markets will drive the LNG demand in the short term.

The current surplus supply capacity will end in 2014 according to LNGReports. Driven by Japan, the UK, China, France and South Korea, the global LNG demand increased to 248.5 million tonnes in 2011.

On the other hand, low demand estimates coupled with lack of investment and skilled labor are delaying supply projects globally. In particular, most of the African and Australasian projects have been delayed by one to two years. Overall, LNGReports expects the demand to exceed supply by 75 million tonnes in 2014.

Further, the company expects the global natural gas demand to increase to 4.2 Tcm in 2020, which will drive the scope of LNG industry. Accordingly, 17 new markets will enter the global LNG trade by 2020.

China is also investing heavily in overseas exploration and production projects. Further, the country’s domestic production is also expected to rise significantly. Added to this, access to trans-national import pipelines is also threatening the aggressive forecasts of the LNG industry. However, despite the threatening factors, most companies are continuing with their project realization programs, which will result in high LNG demand growth by 2020.

Prevailing uncertainty over European economies is likely to hinder the gas demand in the region. Uncertainty over when and how the recovery will happen coupled with maturity in industrial sector will impact the gas demand growth. Currently, power sector is the major consumer of the clean fuel. However, markets like the UK will drive the demand for the region LNG imports. Further, expensive Russian piped gas over spot LNG prices will provide a fillip to the region’s demand. On average Russian gas was over $2- $3 per MMBtu more than LNG spot. In addition, foray of new markets including Ireland, Croatia and Poland into the industry will also drive the industry growth in the long term.

Other findings of the LNG report include-

Global LNG trade is expected to be 248.5 million tonnes in 2011

• Japanese LNG imports to stand at 78 million tonnes in 2011
• 28 new LNG plants are in progress to become operational by 2014
• Global natural gas demand to increase at an AAGR of 2.8% in the decade
• Australian liquefaction projects face capex and unskilled labor problems
• Global LNG scope to widen rapidly with 20 new markets foraying into trade
• African LNG exporters provide tough competition to suppliers in Europe and Asia
• US LNG operators planning conversion of their import plants to liquefaction terminals
• Japan, Korea, UK, India, China, Spain, France are the next investment destinations

SCOPE:

• LNG demand and production outlook for 20 countries, 5 regions to 2020
• Key investment drivers, trends and impact of nuclear outage, possible European recession, supply shortages and others
• Current status, updates and feasibility of planned LNG projects worldwide
• Compares investment environment in leading 20 LNG markets
• Country and region wise liquefaction and regasification capacity by terminal from 2000- 2020
• Detailed analysis and insights into all existing and upcoming LNG markets
• Location, operator, ownership, start up, technology, capital expenditure details of all operational and planned LNG terminals
• Market structure and competitive landscape of both liquefaction and regasification markets in each region
• LNG operations by country, terminals along with SWOT, value chain analysis and financial information
• Global LNG news updates from October to December 2011