Better fate until mid-2011
In line with the health of the domestic economy, the market for packaged food recorded above-average current value growth at the end of 2010 and during the first half of 2011. Despite a worrying slowdown in the second semester, marketers deem 2011 should be better than the sluggish 2009 and maybe 2010 for the market. This is concomitant with the still good news for the local economy, the recovery of consumer confidence during the first semester, and mainly the renewed efforts of manufacturers in terms of innovation and advertising. Although the obsession with purchasing power was still important in 2010/11, French consumers indulged more than in 2009, and were ready to pay a premium in chocolate confectionery, ice cream or meal solutions.
More convenience and more pertinent health and wellness products
The pace of life in French is speeding up. To match their increasingly hectic lifestyle, quick and easy food preparation products saw growing fortunes in 2011. Microwaveable boxes of pasta or ready meals, fresh cut fruit, prepared salads, new sandwiches or packaged sushi allow them to save time but also money, as they are cheaper alternatives to consumer foodservice. Nutrition/staples should have theoretically benefited from an on-going “homing” and “back to basics” trend, but suffered from the maturity of baked goods and dairy products. Meanwhile the health and wellness trend developed at a more reasonable pace as consumers become more aware of it. They increasingly adopt organic, naturally healthy products or offerings marketed as lacking preservatives, additives etc., accept light dairy products, and are less and less trusting of functional/fortified items.
A-brands strike back
Due to the still high value share of artisanal products in France, the competitive environment was highly fragmented in packaged food at the end of the review period. The top five players – Nestlé, Lactalis, Danone, Kraft and Unilever – held a modest value share in 2010. By contrast with the middle of the review period, these players and mainly local manufacturers were positioned in meal solution – Fleury Michon, Socopa or Labeyrie – and fared better than in 2009 by virtue of renewed support for their A-brands. More innovative and advertised in 2010/2011, these A-brands generally progressed more than private label products. However, with their low-cost products on one hand and standard-premium or organic items on the other, private label products have not had the last word.
Supermarkets and hypermarkets continue to lead
The great surprise of the second half of the review period was the stable share of discounters, a channel which did not improve its position from 2008. Discounters are able to make tight household budgets stretch further, which has proven extremely important to consumers experiencing a decline in purchasing power. However, the households most affected by the financial crisis were in the low-income segment – the core-target group of discounters – which affected traffic to such outlets. Meanwhile, the private label products of supermarkets/hypermarkets were upgraded and became increasingly competitive. This latter channel still largely dominated and gained ground on discounters in 2010 and the first half of 2011.
2011 could only be a respite
The sudden worsening of the debt crisis totally shuffled the cards in the summer of 2011. Overall packaged food constant value sales are set to increase very slightly over the forecast period. Consumers should become more price conscious within an economic downturn which does not seem likely to end any time soon, and with an overall situation that may be worsening in 2012. Impulse and indulgence products could bear the brunt of growing scruples among consumers linked with their superfluous nature but also their calorie intake. Many categories should become further dependent on in-store promotions and discounts, particularly in nutrition/staples. As consumer lifestyles are unlikely to become dramatically slower over the forecast period, demand for convenience foods will continue to be at the fore.
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