Hungary’s real estate market, like so many others, was seriously damaged by the global financial crisis. An uptick in demand for office and retail space, as well as industrial property will only arise in tandem with a broader economic recovery. Nevertheless, this is once again under threat as Hungary's economy is set to re-enter recessionary territory in 2012 as a combination of slowing economic activity across Western Europe and severe financial stresses at home weigh heavily on all components of GDP by expenditure. Hungary is in dire need of a new IMF/EU deal, which we believe will be attained by the end of Q112 and should help to stabilise financial markets somewhat. On account of the financial stresses facing Hungary and the slowdown in eurozone economic activity, we have lowered our real GDP growth forecast for Hungary to -1.5% in 2012 from -0.5% previously.
In spite of the weak economic backdrop, and a construction sector which continues to be under pressure, our latest data collection from Hungary has revealed a cautiously optimistic outlook over the mediumterm. In terms of annualised performance, top line rental rates experienced annual growth in most of the sub-sectors and cities surveyed, however the market is still a far cry from its pre-financial crisis heyday. We do not anticipate an immediate change in fortunes for the sector, but believe that by 2013 the country will see a much improved pipeline and real estate outlook.
Key Opportunities:
Key Risks:
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